The performance of amateur traders on a public internet site: a case of a stock-exchange contest

We analyze a very thorough data base, including all of the bid/ask orders and daily portfolio values of more than 600 on-line amateur traders from February 2007 to June 2009. These traders were taking part in a stock-exchange contest proposed by the French Internet stock-exchange site Zonebourse. More than 80% of traders lose relative to the market. Their relative average annual performance varies from -38% to -60%, depending on the method used. In absolute, more than 99% of traders lose and face drastic losses: on average, portfolio values fall from an initial value of 100 to a terminal value of 7 in the 29 months covered here. When we include the rewards offered by the contest, average performance becomes -13% a year. However, only two deciles continue to beat the market. From an initial value of 100 the final value is 28 including rewards, but 95% of traders still lose in absolute. There is no clear performance persistence for traders. Are the best traders just lucky then? Focusing on contest winners, the long-term transition analysis suggests a long-term probability of staying in the best decile which is greater than chance. We thus cannot reject a “star effect” of staying in the best decile. However, the great majority of amateurs do seem to be e-pigeons. Online trading may just be costly entertainment, like casino gambling.Behavioral finance, finance, online trading, amateur traders , e-pigeons, trade losses

Core Lexicon and Contagious Words

We present the new empirical parameter $f_c$, the most probable usage frequency of a word in a language, computed via the distribution of documents over frequency $x$ of the word. This parameter allows for filtering the core lexicon of a language from the content words, which tend to be extremely frequent in some texts written in specific genres or by certain authors. Distributions of documents over frequencies for such words display long tails as $x>f_c$ representing a bunch of documents in which such words are used in abundance. Collections of such documents exhibit a percolation like phase transition as the coarse grain of frequency $\Delta f$ (flattening out the strongly irregular frequency data series) approaches the critical value $f_c$.Comment: RevTex, 4 pages, 2 figure

A "Garden of Forking Paths" - the Quantum Mechanics of Histories of Events

We present a short survey of a novel approach, called "ETH approach", to the quantum theory of events happening in isolated physical systems and to the effective time evolution of states of systems featuring events. In particular, we attempt to present a clear explanation of what is meant by an "event" in quantum mechanics and of the significance of this notion. We then outline a theory of direct (projective) and indirect observations or recordings of physical quantities and events. Some key ideas underlying our general theory are illustrated by studying a simple quantum-mechanical model of a mesoscopic system.Comment: 26 pages, 3 figure

Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games under Uncertainty.

In a dynamically efficient economy, can a government roll its debt forever and avoid the need to raise taxes? In a series of examples of economies with zero growth, this paper shows that such Ponzi games may be infeasible even when the average rate of return on bonds is negative, and may be feasible even when the average rate of return on bonds is positive. The paper then reveals the structure which underlies these examples.

Localization induced by noise and non linearity

We introduce a model for a two configurations system, and we study the transition from quantum to classical behaviour. We first consider the effect of the interaction with the environment as an external noise and we show that it produces decoherence and suppression of tunnelling. These features are widely accepted as definition of classicality, while we believe that classicality implies that quantum delocalized states spontaneously evolve into localized ones. We than show that this evolution take place only when both noise and non linearity in the equations are present.Comment: 12 pages, RevTeX, psfig.sty, 2 ps figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Quest for Fire: Explorations in Expanded Animation

Quest for Fire is the result of two years of theoretical and studio-based research on the current status of animation and its possibilities as a contemporary art medium. This project brings to life the notion of expanded animation: work that challenges established understanding of moving imagery through the use of installation and live performance. Quest for Fire takes on the moving image as its subject matter, drawing parallels between animation at the start of the twenty-first century—a medium in flux—and its eclectic historical origins. Using fire as a metaphor for animation, this project strips down the moving image to its simplest elements and explores thematic connections with technology, the control over time, magic and illusion. Quest for Fire creates an expanded experience of animation, one that is intrinsically linked to a singular time and space as it was at animation’s inception in the 19th century

Networking Phylogeny for Indo-European and Austronesian Languages

Harnessing cognitive abilities of many individuals, a language evolves upon their mutual interactions establishing a persistent social environment to which language is closely attuned. Human history is encoded in the rich sets of linguistic data by means of symmetry patterns that are not always feasibly represented by trees. Here we use the methods developed in the study of complex networks to decipher accurately symmetry records on the language phylogeny of the Indo-European and the Austronesian language families, considering, in both cases, the samples of fifty different languages. In particular, we support the Anatolian theory of Indo-European origin and the ‘express train’ model of Austronesian expansion from South-East Asia, with an essential role for the Batanes islands located between the Philippines and Taiwan